Tipping Points, Bifurcation Theory, and the Justification For Whole System Thinking

For those who wonder why a "tipping point" matters, or why critical thinkers are now talking about "whole system thinking"...

 

Tipping point (climatology) – the point beyond which unstable global climate does not return to a previous equilibrium state but gets more unstable until it finds a new equilibrium

 

Tipping point (sociology) -  is the event of a previously rare phenomenon becoming rapidly and dramatically more common
 

Tipping point (ecology) – exceeding planetary boundaries, in which living within the boundaries' stable state retains planetary habitability on Earth
 

Tipping point (catastrophe theory)  - the value of the parameter at which the set of equilibria abruptly change
 

Tipping point (civil engineering - angle of repose) - the maximum angle of a stable slope of granular materials before it destabilizes
 

Tipping point (economics) - the point at which a dominant technology or player defines the standard for an industry-resulting in an permanent market advantage & "winner-take-all" economies of scale and scope (market advantage = loss of equilibrium)

{Ed: Tipping Point (everything) – that point at which the stable state of system parameters, or system equilibrium, is sufficiently disturbed that the system cannot return to that steady state (or equilibrium) without significant external influence. The system will invariably seek a new equilibrium state, that may require complete annihilation of many previous system factors}

Bifurcation Theory - is the mathematical study of changes in the qualitative or topological structure of a given family, such as the integral curves of a family of vector fields, and the solutions of a family of differential equations. Most commonly applied to the mathematical study of dynamical systems, a bifurcation occurs when a small smooth change made to the parameter values (the bifurcation parameters) of a system causes a sudden 'qualitative' or topological change in its behavior. Bifurcations occur in both continuous systems (described by ODEs, DDEs or PDEs), and discrete systems (described by maps).

Catastrophe Theory, a branch of bifurcation theory in the study of dynamical systems, originated with the work of the French mathematician René Thom in the 1960s, and became very popular due to the efforts of Christopher Zeeman in the 1970s, considers the special case where the long-run stable equilibrium can be identified with the minimum of a smooth, well-defined potential function (Lyapunov function).

Bifurcation theory studies and classifies phenomena characterized by sudden shifts in behavior arising from small changes in circumstances, analyzing how the qualitative nature of equation solutions depends on the parameters that appear in the equation. This may lead to sudden and dramatic changes, for example the unpredictable timing and magnitude of a landslide.

Small changes in certain parameters of a nonlinear system can cause equilibria to appear or disappear, or to change from attracting to repelling and vice versa, leading to large and sudden changes of the behavior of the system. However, examined in a larger parameter space, catastrophe theory reveals that such bifurcation points tend to occur as part of well-defined qualitative geometric structures.

Look back at the list above.  It includes climate, physical events, sociology, economics, and is only a part of what our world system is.  Certainly the political systems we are so vitally interested in here are wrapped up in it all in very complex ways. Here is what I am driving at:  we are now facing a variety of instabilities all at once.

Again a partial list:
climate change
ocean acidification

global warming

pollution

polarized elections

wars
bees and birds, insecticides
agricultural crises
water surplus and drought
economic turmoil
communications, internet, technology
many, many more

No one of these can be studied adequately isolated from the others yet we try so desperately to do just that.  In climate science alone we keep seeing new things as changes progress that potentially change everything.

Maybe we humans are an "intelligent" species.  Yet we are also arrogant if we believe the progress briefly described here is enough to adequately deal with what is coming and seems to be coming faster and faster.  Is there an answer?  The only answer is to become as flexible as possible and maybe some adaptation will be possible.

Summarized from “Are you ready for this? A multi-dimensional tipping point” by Don Mikulecky (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/25/1316743/-Are-you-ready-for-this-A-multi-dimensional-tipping-point?detail=email#)

Thanks for being there and being you... and thanks for reading. Your comments and thoughts are appreciated and solicited.

The Smokemaster

We don't need to DEFINE or DESIGN anything - We need to DO THE DESIGN that already exists!

In the early stages of our cultural shift, I am seeing a lot of people reflecting the question “What should I do?” or reflecting that they are feeling intimidated or scared by this whole coming together – good, empowered, but intimidated. Others are framing the whole coming together and talking and sharing as a good thing but lacking in substance unless we are “doing things” to make this change, this SHIFT, happen.

First we need to agree on some basic "rules of the road" in our current journey to "the light". These are an assortment of blinding flashes of the obvious and other insights that have come to me over the years as immutable "truth".

• What's supposed to happen does. What's NOT doesn't.
• What goes around, comes around (Karma is real) 
• There is no such thing as life balance, because balance is static and life is dynamic.
• There is life equilibrium, which is dynamic balance
• In a closed biological system the accumulation of resources is  -
• a zero sum game (your gain is someone else's loss - definitively)
• the most serious disturbance of the forces of equilibrium
• unsustainable
• Western civilization has been unsustainable almost from the start

 Several significant points need to be recognized:
1) If we do nothing the SHIFT will happen. WE will not be involved in it in the same way, but it will happen. We, none of us, either collectively or individually, control this. The outcome may be different than we would like. That is one of my motivations for being here - to influence as best I can the outcome - to be favorable for humanity. My BEING HERE does that. THat means it qualifies as "doing something".

2) Our Presence and Engagement Here ARE substantial action in, and of, themselves. Whatever else we do,  so much the better. The very fact that we are engaging routinely around conscious evolution and co-creation, coherence and resilience, and that we are here to enable that, IS taking a SERIOUS action step, because we are creating an ever more substantial and sustaining resonant morphic field that flows between us and around us to everyone we connect with, within which the SHIFT will occur in profoundly meaningful ways as a matter of emergence.

3) Expanding on #2, EVERYTHING that we are doing in this resonant field is “doing things” of substance – talking, contemplating, writing poetry, creating blogs, planting a garden, building community, or making presentations to critical decision makers, whatever…it’s all GOOD. We have no master plan that has been handed to us, nor do we have to create one.

4) Just as an engine has operational limits but it is designed, even optimized to do certain things well, so are we... and we have not yet reached our full potential. The SHIFT will bring us an order of magnitude (or two) closer to fulfilling that opportunity... if we can make it successfully. We have an inherent "design" in our nature and being. We cannot change that anymore than the engine can change it's engineering. Whether you chose to see that as "externalized" deified design or the natural design of the universe in 200,000 years of evolution (more actually) is of no matter.

5)That said, we do NOT need to design or define ANYTHING! We just need to DO THE DESIGN that we "are" the best it can be done.

Sometime we get too wrapped up in the issue of "What should we do?" and the answer is always the same "What we SHOULD do!" It is frequently our lack of faith in ourselves that keeps us from doing what we SHOULD do, but rarely a lack of knowing what that is. Sometime the knowing is broad. It is a sense of things rather than a detailed knowledge of things. That's OK. Listen to that small quiet voice that is INSISTENT. Most of our guidance doesn't come with burning bush credentials. The detailed knowledge will come when it is time.

Ultimately, it is about alignment with Source, individually and collectively. That’s the premier benefit of this environment, and this interaction, is to promote and facilitate in each of us the opportunity to better align ourselves, and help others align, with Source, better and more consistently than we would be or do without this. Some of you know Source as God, others have a variety of other names. That’s all good too. Don’t get hung up on the name.

We don't need to DESIGN and DO, we just need to DO THE DESIGN that already exists (in each and everyone of us) to enable and empower our co-creative capacity. We are not creating a new technology here - we are realizing our place in a higher capacity that has always existed. We exist as a group because it was time for this part of the design to emerge, to happen (see Functioning Collectively - my next blog :-) . All of this will take effort, more for some than for others. Rarely is anything just “easy” when it’s your first time doing it. Some have just been “doing” this for somewhat longer already.

Your comments are welcome :-)

Smokemaster John